The Drake Equation (Frank Drake, 1961) takes in the factors which might determine how many intelligent, communicating civilizations there are in our galaxy.
Enter your estimates below and calculate!
N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL
N* represents the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy
Current estimates are 100-200 billion.
fp is the fraction of stars that have planets around them
Current estimates range from 20% to 50%.
ne is the number of planets per star that are capable of sustaining life
Current estimates range from 1 to 5.
fl is the fraction of planets in ne where life evolves
Current estimates range from 100% (where life can evolve it will) down to close to 0%.
fi is the fraction of fl where intelligent life evolves
Estimates range from 100% down to near 0%.
fc is the fraction of fi that communicate
Estimates are 10-20%
fL is fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live
The expected lifetime of our Sun and the Earth is roughly 10 billion years. So far we've been communicating with radio waves for less than 100 years. How long will our civilization survive? If we were destroyed tomorrow the answer to this question would be 1/100,000,000th. If we survive for 10,000 years the answer will be 1/1,000,000th.
When all of these variables are multiplied together we come up with:
N, the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy.
After you've chosen all your answers below - press the calculate button
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